Win and you’re in
So it’s the time of year when we get out the slide-rule and calculator and work out who needs to do what to get in to the finals. This season, though, at least in First Grade, we could just about work it out on our fingers. Unusually, in the final round, every team in the top six plays a team below it on the table and outside the top six – so, basically, win and you’re in. There’s still a contest for the minor premiership: Parramatta, on 69, has the edge, but if they were to slip up against Mosman, St George (64) could pass them by beating Sutherland. By beating Northern District last weekend, Western Suburbs (55) more or less ensured themselves of a place in the finals, although if they were to lose to Hawkesbury, you could come up with scenarios involving outrights that would have them missing out. It’s after that, that things get interesting. Fairfield (59) should beat North Sydney to secure its spot, but if they were to lose, and three of the five teams behind them win, they could yet miss out (which might turn on quotients). Randwick-Petersham (51) needs to beat Gordon (47), while Gordon needs a big win and a heap of other results to fall its way. Penrith (48) needs a win over Blacktown to hold on to sixth spot; Sydney University (also 48) needs to beat Northern District and hope that either it somehow gets its quotient above Penrith’s or that one of Randwick or Penrith loses. Gordon and Hawkesbury (47) have legitimate hopes, but need other results to go their way – or outrights, or ties, or draws, but let’s not go there.
The top six is pretty much set in Seconds
It’s not mathematically impossible that seventh-placed Easts (50 points) could pull off an outright win over fifth-placed Bankstown (61) -but unless that happens, the top six will remain as it is, though the order could change a little. The winner of Sydney University (72) and Northern District (67) will finish first unless Campbelltown-Camden (65) can beat sixth-placed Manly (58) outright.
Third Grade is complicated
Once you allow that outright points are possible, twelve teams still have a chance of reaching the Third Grade finals. Parramatta (64) should clinch first place by beating Mosman, who are running 15th. University of NSW (59) will be in the finals, and it would take a series of freak results for St George (55) to miss out. But Hawkesbury (53), Northern District (51) and Manly (51) could all drop out if they lose. The chasing pack includes UTS North Sydney (50), Sydney University (49), Bankstown (49) ad Gordon (48), who can all get in with a first-innings win and lucky results elsewhere, while Wests (44) and Easts (42) both need ten points and lots of luck.
Fourth Grade is close
With two days left before the finals, four teams are still in with a chance of taking first place in Fourth Grade. Manly, Sydney University and St George are all on 67, with Parramatta six points behind. Northern District (54) needs a win over Sydney University, or it could be overtaken by Sutherland (50), who would need to upset St George, or Mosman (49), who would need to surprise Parramatta. University of NSW is currently sixth on 53, and would expect to see off 15th-placed Sydney to clinch a spot in the finals.
Manly is pretty good in Fifth Grade
Manly’s Fifths (76) have scored the most points of any team in the five grades, but are not yet sure of the minor premiership – if they were to slip up against Campbelltown-Camden (seventh, on 52), they could be passed by Parramatta (72), who have what looks like a less demanding game against Mosman (currently 15th). St George (65) will be there, and Easts (55) are pretty safe, especially since they’re facing bottom-of-the-table Bankstown. If Penrith (53) or Northern District (52) drop points, they could be passed by Fairfield (47) or even, with outright points, by University of NSW (45) or Sutherland (44).