Four First Grade finalists are settled
Just two Saturdays to go before finals, and the First Grade table remains more or less as it has been since Christmas – the top four is set, and the rest is a mess. St George, despite its thumping at the hands of Penrith, will still finish as minor premiers even if they all get lost on the way to Benson’s Lane on Saturday (not that we advise this as a strategy, however tempting it may be). Northern District, Manly and Parramatta will fill the next three, not necessarily in that order. And then comes the cluster. Gordon leap-frogged over Wests to sit in fifth with a strong win over Bankstown, featuring the inevitable Tym Crawford century. They can make their place secure by beating Blacktown. But Blacktown is in the mix too – if they beat Gordon, and Wests lose to Campbelltown, they’re in the mix. Randwick-Petersham can make the six by beating University of NSW if other results fall their way. You can even construct a scenario in which 12th-placed Fairfield beats Parramatta outright, and a whole heap of other sides lose or draw so that they sneak in to sixth. And that’s before you factor in ties and rain! But this is Five Things, not 38 implausible conjectures.
There’s another logjam in Seconds
Only three finalists are known for certain in Second Grade. Bankstown (73) will be minor premiers if they beat Easts (51), unless Manly (71) beat Penrith (52) outright. Northern District (65) are all but certain to hold their spot in the top three. Wests sit fourth on 56, but there are no fewer than five teams who could overtake them with just a first-innings win, so they need to make sure they put away Campbelltown. Sutherland (55) needs to beat Sydney University to remain in the six, and St George (54) needs a win against Hawkesbury. If any of them stumble, then Parramatta (53) can sneak in with a win against Fairfield. But St George will be confident after an impressive win over a strong Penrith side, led by Vansh Jani’s 148 from 100 balls, which included 112 runs in boundaries.
Sydney University will play in the finals in Thirds. Nothing else is certain
A career-best 6-15 by Darcy Manners gave Sydney University a big win over Parramatta last week, and sealed the minor premiership for the Students. They sit on 81 points, 14 ahead of Manly. But even on 67 points, Manly is not absolutely certain to play in the finals. Behind them sit Easts (65), Northern District (63), Parramatta (62), UTS North Sydney (62), St George (61) and Wests (57) – all of whom could potentially overtake Manly (whose quotient, 1.161, leaves it especially vulnerable). Manly does have the advantage of playing Penrith, who sit dead last with only two wins. And there’s one critical match-up: UTS North Sydney play Northern District in what looks like a straight shoot-out for a finals place. If North Sydney loses, it will drop behind Wests if Wests can beat Campbelltown – who are running second-last with only three wins.
You ignore quotients all year, until you don’t…
Coaches like to shout that every run counts. Well, sometimes every single run does count. In Fourth Grade this week, fifth-placed Easts (59) plays Bankstown (53), and if Bankstown wins, it could slip past on quotient, where Easts hold a lead (1.402 to 1.387) so slight that it may not be strong enough to survive a loss by anything more than a run or two. We don’t really do maths here (there’s a reason we don’t go past Five Things), but we calculate that difference in quotient to equal the over-aggressive throw to the bowler’s end that went for four overthrows back in Round Four. Still, Easts have a couple of highly experienced players in Oliver Maxwell and Jackson Coutts, and pounded University of NSW last week – James Britnell, who opened the season with successive ducks in Fifths, hit a ridiculous ten 6s in his innings of 93. There may be some jostling over final placings, but Manly (82), Northern District (75) and Wests (74) will all play in the Fourth Grade finals. Then there are potentially eight teams jostling for the last three places. Sydney University (60) has clung onto its place in the six for some time, and has a relatively comfortable draw against fourteenth-placed Sutherland (although more than one finals contender has slipped on that kind of banana skin). St George sits in sixth, and really should see off last-placed Hawkesbury – but if that goes wrong, Gordon (54) and Parramatta (51) still have a hope.
Manly looks hard to beat in Fifths
Manly are your Fifth Grade minor premiers, having already earned a highly impressive 89 points. Also safely into the finals are Parramatta (78) and Easts (71), while it would take a series of freak events to displace Gordon (67). Eighth-placed Wests (53) need an outright win over Campbelltown and another series of freak results, which could include seventh-placed St George losing to last-placed Hawkesbury. Wests are horribly unlucky – they didn’t get onto the field at all last week, when they would have expected to beat 19th-placed Blacktown. Essentially, Sydney University (61) and UTS North Sydney (60) face an identical challenge – win and you’re in. North Sydney’s batting has been unconvincing lately, but a decent attack, steered around by the experienced Patrick Lindsay, usually keeps them in the context.