That game back in round three was actually pretty important
Now that the rain looks like easing and there could be some finals played, teams through the grades are furiously performing calculations to see what needs to be done to play on into the post-season. Somewhere in all this they might reflect that the biggest game of the season was actually that one back in round three, which they didn’t win but maybe should have, and didn’t seem like that big a deal at the time, but now makes the difference between a comfortable finals spot and a Saturday spent anxiously checking MyCricket scores from three other grounds.
Anyway, let’s be crazy wild optimists and pretend that games will go ahead this weekend. Northern District (85 points), Mosman (78), Randwick-Petersham (75), Manly (69) and St George (59) will be progressing to the finals no matter what happens. The Rangers will be minor premiers unless they lose heavily to St George and Mosman manages a massive bonus-point win over Campbelltown-Camden. In that event both sides would have 85 points and Mosman might, in theory, emerge with the better quotient. Sydney, on 52, has its destiny in its own hands: if it beats University of NSW (46), it stays in sixth spot. But then it gets messy. Wests (51) can break into the six if they beat Bankstown and Sydney loses to University of NSW – or, just possibly, if Sydney beats University of NSW but Wests pick up a bonus point and improve their quotient just enough to edge ahead of Sydney. If University of NSW beats Sydney, both sides will be on 52, and the Bees will have the better quotient, so they would take sixth spot unless Wests win. And then there’s Sydney University. There’s a theoretically possible universe in which UNSW beats Sydney but without improving its quotient, while Sydney University monsters Gordon enough to win a bonus point and lift its quotient from 1.1021 to above 1.2, which is what would be needed. For that to happen, not only would the Students need to win by some colossal margin, they’d also need University of NSW to win by a tiny margin, and Bankstown to beat Wests. Whatever the odds of this are, it would be worth putting a dollar on it – it won’t happen, but if it did…
Second Grade is… complicated
One thing we know about Second Grade is that Mosman will be minor premiers. They’re sitting on 85 points, so they could forget to turn up this week and all go on holidays for the first week of finals and still get through to the semis. Then Sutherland (60), Manly (59) and Gordon (59) will all be in the finals, though the pecking order is subject to all manner of permutations (Sutherland, second with a huge quotient of 1.7930, sit in second but as a mathematical possibility could be sixth). Northern District (54) can seal its place by beating St George (48) and Sydney University will stay in the six if they beat Gordon.
After that, though, it gets complicated. Easts, on 52, will play Sutherland. If they win that one, they could go past either or both of Northern District or Sydney University if they lose. Then there are Bankstown and St George, both lurking on 48 and looking to pass any of the three teams ahead of them that stumbles.
Eight doesn’t go into two
It’s unlikely that we’ll know the makeup of the Third Grade finals until very late on Saturday afternoon. The top four are secure – Northern District (73) will be minor premiers, followed by Bankstown (61), Sydney University (56) and University of NSW (53). But no fewer than eight teams could hypothetically take the remaining two spots. Parramatta (47) can clinch a place by beating 15th-placed Penrith, who have won only four times this season. And Easts (43) will expect to overcome 14th-placed Sutherland in a highly anticipated clash of the two sides in Sydney whose batting has collapsed most often this season. But if either Parramatta or Easts slip up, Randwick-Petersham (42) can go past them by beating North Sydney. And then there are Manly (41), Mosman (41), North Sydney (40), Gordon (38) and even Wests (37), who could all squeak into sixth spot with a big win and a vast number of favourable results at other grounds.
There’s a play-off in Fourth Grade
There’s a virtual finals play-off in Fourth Grade, where fifth-placed Sydney University (48) plays seventh-placed Gordon (46) with the winner all but assured of a place in the top six. University captain Ash Cowan will be looking to maintain a streak of playing finals cricket in every season since 1988 (although it’s possible we made that bit up).
Parramatta (60) can clinch the minor premiership by beating Penrith, but if they stumble, Northern District (58) can pass them by beating St George (52), who can’t be displaced from the six whatever happens. Manly (54) will be there too, and University of NSW (47) needs to beat Sydney to be sure of keeping its place. Then there’s a string of increasingly insane permutations that would allow Sutherland (45), Wests (42), Easts (41) and Mosman (40) to leap into the six from deep in the pack, but our brains hurt too much to figure all that out.
Easts are on track in Fifths
In Fifths, Easts (65) are minor premiers if they beat Sutherland, but if they don’t, they can be passed if University of NSW (60) beat Sydney (42). Sydney needs the win, because then if Northern District (45) loses to St George, Sydney can jump into the top six. Gordon (52), North Sydney (49) and Manly (48) look fairly safe, although both Hawkesbury (44) and Randwick-Petersham (41) both have what CNN correspondents like to call a “path to victory”.